To this end, the new administration should perform an early, top-down, and thorough strategic review to enable greater consistency and effectiveness in U.S. South China Sea policy. All this will occur in a region that is increasingly the vibrant center of the world economy. Not only Vietnam is the strongest opponent of the Chinese nine-dash line claim in the region, Vietnam's sustained economic growth has pushed it to emerge as an important player in the South East Asia, which China perceives is not in its interests. The result has been to heighten tensions and allow Chinese forces to more easily project military power across the region. Close allies such as Australia and Japan have a great deal to offer in terms of capability and capacity, and should be encouraged to do more. America has formal defense/security alliances with five Asian countries: Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Thailand, and Australia. Notably, the paper identified Malaysia's maritime claims in the South China Sea as its top security concern. The USSJohn C. Stennistied up there for a few days in April. by Geoffrey Hartman "American aircraft, this is the PLA air force. Those bases may be vulnerable, but before and at the outbreak of hostilities, they will allow China to project power deep into maritime Southeast Asia, to threaten commercial and military passage through the sea, and to impose and enforce an air defense identification zone. This principled stand allows the United States to defend its interests without embroiling itself in the murky sovereignty claims at the heart of the South China Sea dispute. Therefore, the US plays a key role in influencing the resolution of the SCS disputes. Report The strategic landscape of the Western Pacific and Southeast Asia in the early 1990s was remarkably benign with optimism in full flower. It is the geostrategic importance that is usually the main reason for the parties to strengthen their claim over the Spratlys and the Paracels. The end of the Cold War found East Asia and the Western Pacific strategically quiescent. China has constructed more than 3,000 acres of artificial islands, and although this is not illegal, it is an intimidating display of wealth and power. by M A Hossain 3 March 2023 The geostrategic significance of Bangladesh derives from its strategic location at the crossroads of South and Southeast Asia, endowing it with a pivotal role in the re Center for Strategic and International Studies China is already providing indications of how it might act when it controls the South China Sea. Geopolitical platform, analysis of political, military, security, economic, social events with international and geopolitics relevance. Nevertheless, for America, this new world will be profoundly discomfiting and even alien. As building of military facilities continued in 2015, the US explicitly announced its opposition to these constructions and tasked surveillance assets to conduct over flights in the SCS and significantly raised tensions. The United States emerged from World War II as a resident great power in East Asia. China perceives Vietnam as an obstacle for acquiring its control over this strategic sea. The new administration should issue clear and consistent strategic messages, since inconsistent articulation of the objectives of the rebalance strategy has caused confusion in China and amongst U.S. allies and partners. through South China Sea Port is 1400 kms long. U.S. Navy/Handout[/caption]. Expanding U.S. access to Vietnamese facilities as described above could eventually render access to Thai facilities somewhat redundant, further weakening the institutional support for the alliance in the United States. China, too, considers control of these waters to be of high strategic importance. While consistency in U.S. messaging and policy execution is important, it should be balanced by carefully calculated unpredictability in operations and tactics to prevent Beijing from becoming overly confident in its ability to anticipate U.S. reactions. By the end of the 1970s, communist insurgencies outside Indochina had been effectively suppressed. China, Russia and the Munich Security Conference. The South China Sea has become important to the US because of China's challenge to the liberal rules-based order that America has promoted since the Pacific war. Utapao has been suggested as a permanent Southeast Asian Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR) hub. The Balloon Incident and Evolution of Espionage. U.S. leaders should not be afraid of tension in the U.S.-China relationship. In my mind, this leads to 3 key questions to base any form of analysis from: In order to understand the contention of the South China Sea and its significance, it is firstly imperative to understand the geopolitical importance of Asia, which has given rise to Chinese pre-eminence; enabling its rise to contemporary major political power on the global stage. The two major power of the world i.e. Post-Mao China, with the emergence of Deng Xiaoping as paramount leader, became a major constructive presence dedicated to economic development fueled by opening the Middle Kingdom to the region and the world. These women are creating climate solutions, One year later: Democracy stands in Ukraine. Figure 4 shows the overlapping sovereignty claims in the SCS, with Chinas claims according to the 9 dash line doctrine in red. India has proactively engaged in the South China Sea (SCS), notably via boosting its naval presence and forging ties with Vietnam despite China's aggression. The Art of War helps expose the motivation behind past, current, and future Chinese actions. China has shown the most considerable increase in projection of power from all the states surrounding the SCS. The South China Sea is one of the most important economic and environmental regions in the world. Yet, it was and is all of that. The Chinese recently built an island in the South China Sea, apparently as a potential airbase. According to the U.S. State Department, it has been estimated that China is effectively blocking the development of $2.5 trillion worth of oil and gas resources in the South China Sea. Importance of South China Sea The South China Sea is a busy international waterway, one of the main arteries of global trade worth more than $5 trillion and is growing year on year. The U.S. The United States has been less successful in supporting local partners as they resist Chinese coercion. Given these advantages, Washington can afford to focus on the long game in Asia, confident that Chinese adventurism is likely to push many states to turn to the United States for support. Although ultimately unsuccessful in Vietnam, America emerged in a surprisingly advantageous strategic position in Southeast Asia with alliances intact with Thailand and the Philippines and friendly ties with Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia. Diplomatic, informational, legal, and economic responses are currently underrepresented in U.S. China policy, and their incorporation into the policy toolkit will be important for successfully dissuading China over the long-term. A South China Sea Strategy By Dan Blumenthal, Michael Auslin, and Michael Mazza I. Beware China: America Fights Back In recent years, China's inventive engineering feats have allowed it to. Due to the strategic importance of the area, China will continue to establish a maritime power in the SCS as the most dominant player among states in the region. Preserving the U.S. military edge is key to maintaining the U.S. position in Asia. The strategic importance of the South China Sea is mainly due to its geographical location as the area is one of world's busiest and most strategic shipping lanes. In each of these arenas, a successful Chinese effort to seize control of the South China Sea will have a profound impact and each is worth elaboration. It is highly likely that China will continue to upset regional stability in the SCS to expand its own sphere of influence. Vietnam's coastline bordering the South China Sea is over 3,000 kilometers long. There were, however, cautionary signs for those prepared to see them. It threatens the sovereignty of many nations and endangers the prosperity of the world. China tries to control the waters by using fishing vessels that are part of the Chinese maritime militia, coast guard ships, and naval vessels to harass other countries boats and deny access to this key area. In 1995, the Philippines discovered that China had occupied and militarized an atoll (Mischief Reef) well within the Philippines EEZ and within maritime territory claimed by Manila. All Rights Reserved. However, Brunei's insistence that specific issues in the maritime region should be . The South China Sea is considered a "near sea" and its geographic proximity to the mainland is central to the China's strategic imagination and threat perception. In 2016, they carried fully one-third of global shipping with an estimated value of $3.4 trillion. The primary challenge to American regional predominance came from Maoist China first through the Korean War and then via communist insurgencies throughout Southeast Asia culminating in the Vietnam War (1963-75). By contrast, China views. This puts more pressure on Washington to intervene and U.S. allies and partners in Asia are watching carefully and drawing conclusions about U.S. commitment and staying power in the region. multifaceted fiscal and strategic benefits, acting as a magnet for the regional as well as . For example, the Spratly Islands are claimed in entirety by China, Taiwan and Vietnam and in part by Brunei, the Philippines and Malaysia; each except Brunei occupies some of the islands. 1. Pressing Challenges to U.S. Army Acquisition: A Conversation with Hon. African community leaders take home lessons from U.S. Narendra Modis Act East policy has resulted in an acceleration of burgeoning India-ASEAN ties and Indias position on the South China Sea territorial disputes essentially mirrors that of the United States. Inconsistent messaging and policiesincluding on freedom of navigation and routine presence operationshave also led to confusion in the region. Australia, for its part, has vocally supported U.S. freedom of navigation exercises in the South China Sea and may have quietly conducted its own in recent months. In May, Australia and Singapore agreed to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. In the defense realm, the CSP paves the way for more bilateral military exercises, greater Singaporean access to Australian training facilities, enhanced intelligence-sharing arrangements and expanded people-to-people exchanges. In addition to conventional concerns about territorial defense, the South China Sea is also important for China because of its nationalist claims to all of the tiny land . Many of these countries suffer from corruption and lack for effective rule of law. or join us on Facebook. Improved governance will lead to stronger economies over the long term and dampen the influence of Chinese dirty money. The most likely single scenario for a major military engagement against a great power adversary would be one against China centered on the South China Sea. Speaking to Anadolu Agency on Thursday, Bonji Ohara, a senior fellow at the Tokyo-based Sasakawa Peace Foundation, said the marginal sea is key to China's security. In addition, it has proved oil and gas reserves, so the sovereignty of the disputed islands involves legal rights to exploit its resources. Importantly, American access to four airbases (with potentially more to be made available at a later date)especially those on Luzon and Palawanwill make U.S. air power resident in Southeast Asia. South China Sea and possible options. In . You are approaching Chinese airspace. Vietnam and the Philippines have also attempted to form a strategic alliance with Japan in their struggle with China in the SCS. The strategic importance of the SCS is mainly due to its geographical location, as the area is one of the world's busiest and most strategic shipping lanes. Sun Tzu Explains China's Shaping Operations in the South China Sea. World. The 2022 Philippine Election: Trouble for Democracy and Foreign Relations Ahead? It would also open the option of persistently jamming Chinese radar installations in the Spratlys. The United States will continue to stand with our allies and partners to uphold the order that we helped build, Pencesaid. More than 50% of world trade passes through the Strait of Malacca, the Sunda Strait and Lombok Strait over the islands and waters of the SCS amounting to around $5 trillion. The second will analyze the strategic landscape in and around the South China Sea. Sign up to receive The Evening, a daily brief on the news, events, and people shaping the world of international affairs. India and Vietnam, while acknowledging the strategic importance of the SCS and their volatile position when it comes to China's rising power, are edging closer toward each other. Preserving the U.S. military edge is key to maintaining the U.S. position in Asia. Conservation values protection of marine habitat against wanton, unnecessary despoliation are also essential. She also observed that the sea-lanes through the South China Sea constituted a global commons not subject to sovereign claims by any nation. It was the first time that had ever occurred. Strategic. The global focus of economic power has traditionally been centred over the west with the UK and the USA as the key contributors; however in recent years, this has shifted east (see Figure 1), with the main reason for this being rapid urbanization in developing countries, in particular China. The most important and least tangible stake in the South China Sea concerns the preservation (or not) of a regional rules-based order supported by U.S. power. In recent years, Chinas inventive engineering feats have allowed it to create more than 3,200 acres of new land in the South China Sea. Ironically, the United States is drawing closer to communist Vietnam, in which human rights are serially abused, while growing apart from a major Vietnam War ally, largely due to concerns over democratic backsliding. But the South China Sea has been dangerously overfished. Besides, more than half of the world's fishing vessels pass through the SCS. Brunei's statement seems to present a unified front with the Philippines and Vietnam, in preparation for its ASEAN chairmanship in 2021, where ASEAN and China hope to finalise the formulation of the code of conduct to reduce tensions in the South China Sea. If you continue to use this site we will assume that you are happy with it. In particular Chinas maritime law enforcement in the disputed islands and waters has disrupted regional stability; causing tensions between Vietnam after a clash between Chinese patrol boats and Vietnamese oil exploration vessels. But the new maps contours truly began to crystallize earlier this year, when the Philippines Supreme Court ruled as constitutional a new defense agreement with the United States. In short, adopting a more robust deterrence approach need not prevent cooperation that is in the interests of both countries. But the South China Sea has been dangerously overfished. The Obama administration has made modest gains in this regard, but it will be up for to the next president to seize that opportunity and ensure that Southeast Asias future is prosperous, peaceful and free. This access will allow for more frequent, more sustained flights over the South China Sea, including over the disputed Spratly Islands and Scarborough Shoal. Accordingly, Malaysia's note verbale serves as the strongest stance of Malaysia on the SCS in recent times and aligns itself with the top priority of its DWP. The lifting of the arms embargo also opens the door to other forms of U.S.-Vietnam security cooperation. To counter China's efforts to control the South China Sea, the United States needs a sustainable strategy to bolster its own capabilities, work more effectively with capable allies and partners, and strengthen the regional order. That claim remained shrouded in a calculated fog of ambiguity until 2010 when Secretary of State Clinton addressed the status of the South China Sea and its sea-lanes at a meeting of the ASEAN Regional Forum in Hanoi. Ownership claims to them are used to bolster claims to the surrounding sea and its resources. Leung, The Consequences of Conquest: Why Indo-Pacific Power Hinges on Taiwan, United States vs China: from Partnership to Antagonism - Interview with Alfredo Toro Hardy, How the Ukraine War changes Global Geopolitics, What The Economist omits to address in President Xi's vision of a global security order, Armenia: Trapped in Between Interview with Gayane Novikova, How Chinas COVID Policy Reversal Impacts Globally: an interview with Neeraj Singh Manha, Marcos-Xi Durian Diplomacy Climbs to Higher Gear, Is the EU Really Willing to Enlarge in the Western Balkans? Read more, One Woodrow Wilson Plaza1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NWWashington, DC 20004-3027, 2023 The Wilson Center. director of the South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative at Peking . In order to understand the contention of the South China Sea and its significance, it is firstly imperative to understand the geopolitical importance of Asia, which has given rise to Chinese pre-eminence; enabling its rise to contemporary major political power on the global stage. f) . The South China Sea (SCS) has great strategic and economic significance in the contemporary international politico-security environment. It is clear that increased maritime power projection in the SCS, from the Chinese in particular, has upset regional stability, and this is likely to continue. It is one in which China dominates the South China Sea from the north; the United States and its partners dominate the eastern and western edges of the sea; and the bulk of continental Southeast Asian states (Thailand, Cambodia and Laos) are either neutral or aligned more closely with China. The "Implementing the Strategic Action Programme for the South China Sea and Gulf of Thailand" (SCS SAP Project) completed its Inception Phase with the 1st Steering Committee Meeting held online on the 29 and 30 of June, 2021 with official representatives from Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand and Viet Nam and the UNEP Task Manager for the project, with the support of . Russian long-range aviation, despite performing frequent combat missions against Ukraine, is also conducting Pacific patrols, sometimes together with Chinese H-6K strategic bombers (Nikkei Asia, November 30). Chinas claims over the legal status and maritime rights of the 9 dash line remain ambiguous and outside of UN recognised EEZ claims. The annual Cobra Gold exercise is Asias largest multilateral military exercise. Over the longer term, American defense contractors may have their sights set on sales of fighter aircraft and attack helicopters. Washingtons relationship with Hanoi will make that more palatable. Media Relations Manager, External Relations. These factors combined give a strategic importance to the South China Sea that has led to numerous states Brunei, the People's Republic of China, Taiwan, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam each pressing their own claims to . The geopolitical message was unmistakable: Western expectations that China was transitioning toward political democracy were entirely illusory. Indeed, when push came to shove, China would force its bilateral partners to choose between economic prosperity on the one hand and security and even sovereignty on the other. 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW Stay Connected! In addition, this thesis intends to propose a solution to the dispute by pulling from a variety of sources. The South China Sea is not only economically important for Malaysia as a maritime nation, but it is also as important from the perspective of national security. Hanoi and Canberra have launched a number of security dialogues and are expanding personnel exchanges, ship visits and officer training. Abstract. The area marked with a blue line is based on the UNCLOS 200 nautical mile Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) relating to each countrys claims and the islands marked in green are the ones over which sovereignty is disputed. Under President Xi Jinping, Beijing has undertaken more assertive policies that have greatly improved Beijings position in the South China Sea. 1) Islands are much more strategically valuable. It is unlikely that any states in the region possess the wealth and power to oppose this, although there is always a realistic possibility that they may receive backing from the USA if it is in their interests. The Thai people are lurching towards a new political arrangement, a process that Thais have to see through for themselves. In the near term, this could lead to sales of intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance equipment as well as patrol boats to allow Hanoi to better keep an eye on goings-on in the western South China Sea. U.S. policy in the South China Sea has been overly reliant on military options, which may not always be the most effective response. In 1974, Chinese gunboats attacked and defeated a small South Vietnamese military outpost in the Paracels an archipelago of reefs, atolls, and islets in the South China Sea. Shortly after the ARF concluded, an official spokesman for the Chinese Defense Ministry asserted Chinas indisputable sovereignty over the South China Sea. Finally, the United States should prioritize governance issues in its relations with Southeast Asian states. If this sounds overstated or overwrought it is not. First, the United States should feel more confident to pressure the junta on human rights concerns. With the National League for Democracy now in power in Naypyidaw, China cannot rely on Burma as an automatic ally. The same cannot be said for China and a maritime Southeast Asia that aligns with the United States. China has seized the initiative in the South China Sea, however, and the United States needs to revamp its strategy to reverse current trends and escape the trap of reactive and ineffectual policymaking. Such access would complement the renewed U.S. presence in the Philippines; facilitate a regular American presence in the western part of the South China Sea; enable the United States to more easily defendor seal upthe Malacca Strait; and, it should be noted, put American forces within striking distance of major Chinese bases on Hainan, including port facilities that host Chinas ballistic missile submarines. It has increased its military budget by over 8.5% in recent years and this is likely to continue for the near future. the South China Sea in all scenarios short of war with the United States." Chinese control of the SCS-and, more generally, Chinese domination of China's near-seas region, meaning the SCS, the East China Sea (ECS), and the Yellow Sea-could substantially aect U.S. strategic, political, and economic interests in the Indo-Pacic region and . That grouping came under Chinese control an event that went almost entirely unnoticed in the wider world as the drama marking the end of the Vietnam War played out. Second, the United States should feel comfortable adopting a patient approach in pushing a return to full democracy in Thailand. The post-war regional order. Rival countries have wrangled over territory in the South China Sea for centuries, but tension has steadily increased in recent years. China, for example, has asserted a maritime claim to a large majority of the South China Sea that is not consistent with international law.

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